Provincial revenue is projected to be $50 billion in 2020-21, or $1 billion lower than forecast in 2019-20.
Revenue is forecast to stay relatively stable in 2021-22 and then grow to $58.1 billion in 2022-23, mainly by increasing income taxes and bitumen royalties.
Table 1: Budget 2020 Revenue (millions of dollars)
Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Non-renewable resource revenue is estimated to decrease due almost entirely to decreased bitumen royalties from a wider light-heavy oil price differential, reflecting more expensive rail transportation costs.
Revenue from non-renewable resources is forecast at $5.1 billion in 2020-21, growing to $8.5 billion by 2022-23.
For more information, see the updated economic and energy price assumptions on the Economic Outlook page.
Table 2: Non-renewable resource revenue (millions of dollars)
Source: Treasury Board and Finance
Tax revenue is forecast to be higher in 2020-21, due to increases in personal income tax, corporate income tax, education property tax and other tax revenue. These are offset by a reduction due to the elimination of the carbon tax.
Tax revenue in 2020-21 is estimated at $22.9 billion, and forecast to reach $25.9 billion by 2022-23.
Personal income tax revenue is estimated at $12.6 billion in 2020-21, an increase of $747 million, or 6.3% from 2019- 20. Revenue in 2019-20 was $171 million less than the Budget 2019 estimate after revised 2018 assessment data was lower than expected.
The decrease lowers the prior-years’ adjustment to $17 million, which was added to 2019-20 revenue to account for revisions to 2017-19 and 2018-10 revenue already reported in the government’s financial statements. This also reduces the base used to forecast personal income tax revenue for future years, including 2019 and 2020.
Reducing the corporate income tax rate increases competitiveness and attracts investment by reducing the cost of doing business in Alberta, as suggested by the MacKinnon Panel.
Corporate income tax is forecast at $4.5 billion in 2020-21, an increase of $294 million or 7% from 2019-20. Continued growth in corporate income tax is forecast, based on improving oil prices, expanding oil production, achievement of market access as well as growth in manufacturing and exports and rising economic activity.
Table 3: Tax revenue (millions of dollars)
Forecast
Non-renewable resource revenue
Income taxes
Tax revenue
Personal income tax
Business taxes
| Revenue sources | 2018-19 Actual | 2019-20 Forecast | 2020-21 Estimate | 2021 Target | 2022-23 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income and other Taxes | 23,578 | 21,826 | 22,887 | 24,380 | 25,864 |
| Non-renewable resource revenue | 5,429 | 6,671 | 5,090 | 6,705 | 8,536 |
| Transfers from Government of Canada | 8,013 | 9,054 | 9,110 | 9,533 | 9,784 |
| Investment income | 2,349 | 3,525 | 2,630 | 2,889 | 3,070 |
| Net income from government business enterprises | 2,582 | 2,378 | 2,357 | 2,419 | 2,565 |
| Premiums, fees and licences | 3,911 | 3,947 | 4,194 | 4,299 | 4,407 |
| Other | 3,745 | 3,547 | 3,711 | 3,811 | 3,835 |
| Total revenue | 49,607 | 50,948 | 49,979 | 54,036 | 58,061 |
| Resource revenue | 2018-19 Actual | 2019-20 Forecast | 2020-21 Estimate | 2021-22 Target | 2022-23 Target |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitumen royalty | 3,214 | 4,707 | 3,211 | 4,492 | 6,146 |
| Crude oil royalty | 1,149 | 1,228 | 1,135 | 1,267 | 1,302 |
| Natural gas & by-products royalty | 536 | 438 | 429 | 597 | 743 |
| Bonuses & sales of Crown leases | 360 | 133 | 177 | 218 | 223 |
| Rentals and fees/coal royalty | 170 | 164 | 137 | 130 | 122 |
| Total resource revenue | 5,429 | 6,671 | 5,090 | 6,705 | 8,536 |
| 2018-19 Actual | 2019-20 Forecast | 2020-21 Estimate | 2021-22 Target | 2022-23 Target | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Personal Income tax | 11,874 | 11,819 | 12,566 | 13,426 | 14,315 |
| Corporate income tax | 4,871 | 4,245 | 4,539 | 4,985 | 5,360 |
| Education property tax | 2,441 | 2,457 | 2,559 | 2,652 | 2,766 |
| Carbon tax | 1,324 | 185 | – | – | – |
| Other taxes | 3,066 | 3,120 | 3,223 | 3,317 | 3,423 |
| Total | 23.576 | 21,826 | 22,887 | 24,380 | 25,864 |